2015 Event Agenda


Sunday, September 27, 2015  
  
      
          REGISTRATION DESK | 12:00PM - 9:00PM    
          Located at the Hilton Austin Downtown Hotel
    
  
      
          Opening Reception and Dinner | 7:15PM - 10:00PM SPONSORED BY HOUSECANARY    
          Located in Salon A,B,C on the 4th floor of Hilton Downtown Austin
    
  
    Monday, September 28, 2015  
  
      
          10:20 – 11:20am | 1.2 MORE HARM THAN GOOD: The Unintended Consequences of Federal Reserve Policy on Housing Recovery    
          For the past seven years, Federal Reserve Chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen have implemented a series of monetary policies intended to make housing more affordable in the aftermath of the Great Recession. As house and rental prices increase beyond the reach of most Americans, this session discusses how and why those policies have done more harm than good, and why they could be remembered as the most significant backfire in the history of central bank policymaking. We will also discuss the pivotal role of housing in income and asset inequality; the potential outcome of Federal Reserve policy scenarios and how a rise in interest rates will impact the U.S. economy and housing market.
    
      Host:     Sean Dobson    
      Host:     Tim Skeet    
      Speaker(s):     Danielle DiMartino Booth, Josh Rosner, Ivan Ross    
  
      
          11:20am – 12:30pm | 1.3 SHORT SQUEEZE: Demographics, Supply and Demand     
          One of the most positive recent developments in the housing industry is the innovative use of big data to more accurately capture, quantify, and forecast industry trends in order to distinguish the light from the train at the end of the tunnel and prepare accordingly. Even more encouraging are the crucial insights and clarity that have emerged as the industry’s brightest analysts and economists dedicate their focus on how demographics are reshaping housing demand. This session discusses the “short squeeze,” a rapid increase in the price of a stock that occurs when there is a lack of supply and excess demand for that particular stock. Not to spoil the plot, but replace stock with housing and you’ll understand the title of this session. Certainly, a market in which demand exceeds supply presents extraordinary opportunities, which our presentations will highlight. However, the housing “short squeeze” presents serious social and economic problems that will only worsen as policymakers impede the ability of the housing finance industry to respond to demand. This pivotal discussion provides the most valuable insight into the short- and long-term future of U.S. housing, with major implications for every sector and position in the market.
    
      Host:     James Egan    
      Host:     Rick Sharga    
      Speaker(s):     Doug Duncan, Laurie Goodman, Dennis McGill    
  
      
          12:30 – 1:30pm | LUNCH | SPONSORED BY KROLL BOND RATING AGENCY    
              
  
      
          1:30 – 2:45pm | 1.4 RUBICON: NO TURNING BACK - The State of the U.S. Mortgage Industry and its Future    
          We frequently use metaphors and ambiguity in our session titles to provoke thought or propose a different way of looking at some aspect of the industry. It really gets interesting when some of our panelists disagree on their interpretation of it. This session encompasses our main theme (and message) for this year’s entire event. In this session, we ask our panel of mortgage market leaders to discuss their thoughts on the session title, as well as define our own “Rubicons”: What decisions have we have made in the mortgage industry - or actions have we taken - that have led us to this point of no return? Since we cannot go back, what must change? Where will we go from here? How will we get there? And what will that future look like?
    
      Host:     Toni Moss    
      Host:     Rick Sharga    
      Speaker(s):     Jay Bray, Greg Zeeman, Doug Duncan, Mark Fleming, Ted Tozer, Randy Robertson    
  
      
          2:45 – 3:55pm | 1.5 HANDS DOWN: Betting Big on House and Rent Price Appreciation    
          Across the spectrum from homeowners to investors to government agencies, everyone is betting big on house price appreciation. At the same time, those operating and investing in Single-Family Rental are betting on increasing rent prices to make their models work. Given the concerns of our previous two sessions, can we be so confident about their continued rise? The purpose of this session is to see how we can reduce the gamble by taking a deep dive into current and projected house and rental prices based on the expertise from this diverse panel of analysts. Each offers a very different (and often conflicting) perspective on the most relevant variables in projecting prices in the future, where the best places are for investors to deploy capital, and prospects for further house and rent price increases.
    
      Host:     Toni Moss    
      Host:     Mark Fleming    
      Speaker(s):     Douglas Bendt, Frank Nothaft, Joshua Pollard, Jeremy Sicklick, Allan Weiss    
  
      
          3:55 – 4:15pm | REFRESHMENT BREAK | Sponsored by Dwell Finance    
              
  
      
          4:15 – 5:30pm | 1.6 RENTING, THE FUTURE: How Will Institutional Market Players Capture That Future?    
          The Single-Family Rental (SFR) sector currently provides homes for 14.9 million households. The ownership of these homes is represented by an extremely granular landscape of traditional “Mom and Pop” landlords, who own approximately 98% of the market. The remaining ~2% is now owned by large-scale institutional landlords, including four public REITs. Institutional players began buying large-volume purchases in early 2012 and peaked a year later in March of 2013. As a new asset class, institutional SFR has experienced a steep learning curve in its growth over a short period of three years, driven by acquisitions in 2012, operations in 2013, and financing in 2014. Despite the announcement of Blackstone’s Jonathan Gray in March of 2014 that “the institutional wave has passed,” this year has seen the entrance of Cerberus and PIMCO, supporting the long-term prospects of institutional SFR as a viable business vs. a short-term trade. Or is it? This session features the leading institutional players to discuss the most important questions about where we go from here: What is the optimal way in which to stabilize platforms, increase margins, and grow the business? How will the public REITs continue to grow – or consolidate - given current capital constraints? As this year’s program shows, current socio-economic factors and future trends support the growth of renting into the future. Here we will focus on the leading market players’ changing strategies, obstacles, and opportunities in capturing it.
    
      Host:     Gary Beasley    
      Host:     Laurie Hawkes    
      Speaker(s):     John Bartling, Todd Eagle, Drew Flahive, David Miller, Stephen Schmitz, Dave Singelyn    
  
      
          5:30 – 6:30pm  | 1.7 GETTING A GRIP: The Fate of Private-Label Securities and the Future of Single-Family Rental Securities  [ ANNUAL CHAMPAGNE DEBATE | Sponsored by ROOFSTOCK    
          Seven years after the crisis, every market but Private-Label Securities (PLS) has recovered; and yet, Rent-Backed Securities have emerged as a promising new asset class. In this year’s Champagne Debate, we discuss whether or not it’s time to “get a grip” and accept the fact that PLS will never return as the predominant funding tool for non-Agency mortgages. If indeed we agree that its fate is sealed, what should replace them? And what does the success of Single-Family securitizations really mean, are they a “green-shoot” of hope for the return of PLS.
    
      Host:     Sean Dobson    
      Host:     Tim Skeet    
      Speaker(s):     Andrew Davidson, Vincent Fiorillo, Richard Johns, Randy Robertson, Ryan Stark, Ted Tozer    
  
      
          6:30 – 7:30pm  | RECEPTION AND COCKTAIL PARTY | SPONSORED BY VINEYARD SERVICES    
              
  
      
          REGISTRATION DESK HOURS | 7:00AM - 6:00PM    
          Located at the Hilton Austin Downtown Hotel
    
  
      
          8:30 - 8:50 am | 1.0 OPENING COMMENTS    
              
      Host:     Toni Moss    
      Speaker(s):     Gene Mergelmeyer    
  
      
          8:50 – 10:00am | 1.1 CTRL+ALT+DELETE: What Happens When the Global Economy Reboots     
          For Windows users, ctrl+alt+del is the “three finger salute” of last resort used to reboot computers when the operating system no longer functions safely. As very recent global events have shown, the operating system of the global economy is far from functioning safely. The bubble driving the world’s second largest economy has burst, and despite extraordinary efforts, Chinese authorities have lost control. Although the European Central Bank has bought time in its struggle with Greece’s sovereign default crisis, the likelihood of contagion among other weak Eurozone economies remains strong, not to mention beyond the Eurozone, in Japan. And although we don’t hear enough about it – yet – the plunge in crude prices is fundamentally reshaping the economic landscape for oil exporting economies, as well as a establishing a new geopolitical order. This session discusses what events will finally trigger a reboot of the global financial system, who (or what entities) will make that decision, and what a reboot of the financial system might look like? We feature an in-depth interview with portfolio manager, economist, U.S. intelligence adviser, and best-selling author James Rickards on the implications of the world’s most recent and significant macroeconomic and geopolitical events – all of which were anticipated in Rickard’s books, "The Death of Money" (2014) and "Currency Wars" (2011).
    
      Host:     Toni Moss    
      Host:     Christopher Whalen    
      Speaker(s):     Jim Rickards    
  
      
          10:00 – 10:20am | REFRESHMENT BREAK | Sponsored by B2R Finance    
              
  
    Tuesday, September 29, 2015  
  
      
          3:00 – 4:00pm | 2.6 CREATIVE DARWINISM: Lessons Learned in Single-Family Rental Operations to Date     
          Regardless of size, once properties are acquired, the operational decisions, capital expenditures, and execution of Single-Family Rental operators are what make or break the margins (and stock valuations). At the same time, building a strong brand and choosing what services to provide residents presents a quandary when profits are at stake. With three years of difficult trial and error, now that Single-Family Rental operators have either nearly or fully stabilized their portfolios of rental properties, this session focuses on how this development has changed the dynamics of their operations, the metrics by which they judge their own success, and the process of “creative Darwinism” operators are deploying to find the right balance for profitability.
    
      Host:     Toni Moss    
      Host:     Dallas Tanner    
      Speaker(s):     Jack Corrigan, Richard Magel, Lani Porter, Curt Schade    
  
      
          4:20 – 5:30pm | 2.7 THE BIG PICTURE: Establishing an Integrated View of Risk Across the Housing Ecosystem     
          In 2009 we presented “Thinking the Unthinkable,” a session which posited several social, economic, environmental and regulatory scenarios that could impact the mortgage market, which, at that time, were considered by this audience to be implausible. Today, they have all actually happened. This year, in the first chapter of its 85th Annual Report, the Bank for International Settlements concludes that “the unthinkable” is now the new normal. One of the most important messages throughout the history of this event is the need to take a holistic view of to the housing industry as a lifecycle and ecosystem, as opposed to placing more importance on one sector over another. This perspective is most important when it comes to risk, as often too much focus is placed in one particular area. This session will delve into the major risks inherent in the housing lifecycle, with the goal of establishing a fully integrated view of risk including credit, collateral, regulatory, buy-back, counter-party, interest-rate, and tail risk. For the first time, we will also explore the evolving risks of Single-Family Rental.
    
      Host:     JK Huey    
      Host:     Steve Meirink    
      Speaker(s):     Peter Carroll, Michael Drayne, Laurie Hawkes, Paul Imura, Allan Weiss    
  
      
          4:00 – 4:20 pm | REFRESHMENT BREAK    
              
  
      
          REGISTRATION DESK HOURS | 7:30AM - 6:00PM    
          Located at the Hilton Austin Downtown Hotel
    
  
      
          8:30 – 9:30am | 2.1 NET WORTH: The  Future of Finance    
          While the idea that banking is necessary, but banks are not has been around since the dot.com era, the recent convergence of technology, social media and regulatory changes as well as the availability of ample private equity, are re-shaping traditional banking activities, the payments ecosystem, and currency itself. This session features crypto currency and the revolutionary blockchain technology behind it, and discusses how it will change everything in the finance industry, including lending and real estate. We also feature leading new models that are turbo-charging the disintermediating world of shadow banking and quite possibly, central banking itself.
    
      Host:     Toni Moss    
      Host:     Paul Miller    
      Speaker(s):     Dan Miller, Josh Rosner, Andrew Hallowell    
  
      
          9:30 – 10:30am | 2.2 ITSAZU.COM: Who Will Come Out On Top of the New Real Estate Exchange and Investor Platform Jungle?     
          Our session title, a phonetic pun, derives from our extensive investigation of the new technology-driven real estate exchange portals, investment property platforms, and online real estate-related transaction models. Given their velocity of innovation, intensity of competition, and common direction, it is quite a challenge to clearly differentiate each model. This session features the most promising startups and current market leaders to discuss how they are revolutionizing the way in which we search, analyze, buy, and sell housing and residential real estate.
    
      Host:     Eric Eckardt    
      Host:     Toni Moss    
      Speaker(s):     Gary Beasley, Wally Charnoff, Kal Raman    
  
      
          10:30 – 11:00am | REFRESHMENT BREAK    
              
  
      
          11:00am – 12 noon | 2.3 CAN’T GET THERE FROM HERE: Technology in Housing Finance and Single-Family Rental     
          This is the topic that typically gets us into the greatest bit of trouble at this event, which is our continued focus on the inefficient and/or inaccessible technology in housing finance and Single-Family Rental. Our two previous sessions discuss the phenomenal developments in the invention and adoption of the latest technology in finance and real estate. Having seen the future, we now turn to the need for the mortgage industry and Single-Family Rental sector to catch up with the 21st century. This session discusses what it will take to achieve fully online and integrated origination, processing and servicing platforms in the Cloud – who’s doing it, how vulnerable those who aren’t are to disintermediation, and why it matters. To date, Single-Family Rental operators also struggle with inefficient technology to run their business, and are forced to build their own platforms due to the lack of fully capable, off-the-shelf technology. We also discuss what SAS (Software as a Service) options exist to provide solutions for the sector.
    
      Host:     Kyle Lundstedt    
      Host:     Robert Caruso    
      Speaker(s):     Rob Carpenter, Wally Charnoff, Jonathan Corr, Dain Ehring, Diane Mueller    
  
      
          12 noon – 1:00pm | 2.4 CATCH-22: THE ORIGINATOR’S DILEMMA: Mortgage Origination for Homeowners and Investors     
          “Catch-22” is the title of Joseph Heller’s famous 1961 novel that describes the absurd bureaucratic constraints on soldiers in World War II. It doesn’t take much to see where we’re going with this – we had you at “absurd bureaucratic constraints,” didn’t we? This session continues last year’s discussion, “Out of the Game,” which focused on low volumes and the deteriorating economics of mortgage origination due to increased regulation. The addition of recent TRID requirements and the Supreme Court ruling on disparate impact places lenders squarely in a Catch-22 dilemma. This year, we look at the extraordinary obstacles impeding the origination market, the mass migration toward the purchase market, and discuss how lenders will stay in business if and until regulations ease. On the positive side, we also discuss more profitable lending alternatives including non-QM and the growth of residential real estate investment lending.
    
      Host:     Amy Brandt    
      Host:     Bill Dallas    
      Speaker(s):     Dennis Cisterna, Mark Filler, James Herbert, Stan Middleman, Willie Newman, Beth O'Brien    
  
      
          1:00 – 2:00pm | LUNCH    
              
  
      
          2:00 – 3:00pm | 2.5 THE RENTAL SPECTRUM: Comparing the Evolution of Multi-Family and Single-Family Rental     
          In this post-financial crisis era, even the vernacular has changed. Case in point: how often do we hear the phrase, “The New Normal”? Granted, we’re not Bill Gross, but in 2010, we thought that our phrase “Renting, the Future” might accurately describe the direction in which U.S. housing was headed. Today, we’re convinced. This session discusses how the entire rental housing spectrum is evolving, from Single- to Multi-Family and hybrid models in between. We also discuss the differences and similarities between how the Single-Family sector is evolving in comparison to the early development of the Multi-Family sector; ways in which the sectors may converge, and what lessons Single-Family operators can incorporate from the Multi-Family experience to expedite their learning curve.
    
      Host:     Laurie Hawkes    
      Host:     Rich Ford    
      Speaker(s):     Phil Comeau, Doug Brien, John Lee, Dan Miller, Curt Schade    
  
    Wednesday, September 30, 2015  
  
      
          8:30 – 9:30am | 3.1 PICKING UP THE PIECES: NON-PERFORMING LOAN SALES    
          Between Bank of America, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and HUD, there are currently $3.8 billion in non-performing loans for sale and with the exception of Bank of America, those sales are far from over. HUD’s 2014 annual report shows an additional 550,000 90-day+ delinquent loans in the FHA portfolio, and according to the FHFA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had a combined total of 530,000 seriously delinquent loans at the end of 2014. Is there enough institutional investment capital available to accommodate the transfer of these mortgage loans? Should we encounter another economic downturn, are we in serious trouble due to the increasing lack of capacity in special servicing? This session looks at the current and ongoing NPL market featuring the largest sellers in the country. It also includes active institutional investors who talk about their perspective on the NPL market, and the shortage of capable special servicers to handle the volume. Finally, we feature the perspective of one of the most active and well-regarded special servicers in the NPL space.
    
      Host:     Genger Charles    
      Host:     Phil Thigpen    
      Speaker(s):     Ed Fay, John Lucey    
  
      
          9:30 – 10:30am | 3.2 TAKING INITIATIVE: How Super-Cities Manage Housing Issues    
          When we think about government influence in the housing market, we tend to focus solely on the role of the federal government. This session shifts our focus to cities. Urbanization is the one of the most talked about mega-trends of the 21st century, with half of the world’s population now living in cities. With Washington consumed in entropy, cities are finding ways to address their own problems and are transforming themselves into new laboratories for innovation. This session discusses the thought process and ways in which city mayors and planners are dealing with the complexities of accelerating urbanization, economic migration, job growth, property taxes, zoning and planning regulation, affordable housing, rental housing, housing booms and busts, and “the NIMBY” problem (Not In My Backyard).
    
      Host:     Toni Moss    
      Host:     Tim Skeet    
  
      
          10:30 – 11:30am | 3.3 HOMEBUILDERS: Keeping Up With Demand and Communities of the Future    
          IN DEVELOPMENT
    
  
      
          REGISTRATION DESK | 7:30AM - 11:00AM    
          Located at the Hilton Austin Downtown Hotel